Decision 2012: Barry Zito or Ryan Vogelsong

Barry Zito is just adored in San Francisco

If you’re an avid reader of the site, then you’ll know what my thoughts on Barry Zito are. Since “avid reader of the site” describes nobody in the world, I’m going to reiterate them.

2012 was something of a renaissance year for Barry Zito, at least in the eyes of the Giants and the fanbase. For the first time in his Giants career Barry Zito has had a season with more standing ovations than boos and the ratio isn’t all that close. He’s had some fantastic starts this season, and that is what fans remember. He has also had some crap starts this season to go along with the fantastic ones. Lots and lots of crap starts. This should come as no surprise to Giants fans or Barry Zito followers. The issue here is that after the crap starts people are like “oh yeah whatever that’s just Zito,” but when he has spectacular starts fans are like “WOAH HEY THERE BIG FELLA SLOW DOWN YEAH BUDDY”. What ends up happening is people remember the big starts and sweep the ugly starts under the rug because complete game shutout in Coors Field! Here is a cool chart:

Year	W	L	ERA	IP	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	HR/9	SO/BB
2007	11	13	4.53	196.2	24	83	131	99	1.1	1.58
2008	10	17	5.15	180.0	16	102	120	85	0.8	1.18
2009	10	13	4.03	192.0	21	81	154	105	1.0	1.90
2010	9	14	4.15	199.1	20	84	150	94	0.9	1.79
2011	3	4	5.87	53.2	10	24	32	60	1.7	1.33
2012	14	8	4.19	178.1	20	69	108	84	1.0	1.57

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Not even close to his best year with the Giants. The main difference is the wins, which is tied of 15^th most in the NL. That’s great and all, except for the part about wins being meaningless. Other than the wins, Zito has been the same pitcher he’s been as a Giant. In terms of ERA+, this was his 2^nd worst season as a Giant. Jim Kozimor has an opinion!

I think Barry Zito has proven he should start Game 1 if @sfgiants are home for playoffs.
— Jim Kozimor (@CSNKoz) September 27, 2012

Oh.

And that’s kind of indicative of what a section of the fanbase and media believes. Zito had a 3.35 home ERA in 2010, and was a cheerleader in the playoffs, and nobody really complained about that.  2012 is no different, but because Zito has been Zito for so many seasons, and  this year he’s shown more exaggerated levels of performance, more people are believing. It’s gotten to the point, where Zito looks to have a very real chance at starting in the postseason. Assuming Bumgarner, Cain and Lincecum get the top 3 spots, the decision comes down to Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito for the fourth starter spot. It’s a decision that should really be a non decision.

It’s true Ryan Vogelsong has been awful in the second half. The 7 innings and 2 earned runs he used to pull out of his back pocket have turned into 4 innings and 4 earned runs. This is the reason the race is close and maybe even favors Zito, at least to Giants brass:

Zito 2^nd half: 79.2 innings, 4.41 ERA, 2.52 K/BB,

Vogelsong 2^nd half: 68 innings, 5.56 ERA, 2.80 K/BB

Zito has clearly pitched better recently. But we’re comparing two pitchers who have been in the mid 4’s and 5’s in ERA. One guy has been a crapfest, the other guy has been plain crap. But all of this is completely ignoring the nearly 1.5 seasons and nearly 323 innings of excellent pitching Vogelsong has thrown.

 Zito’s career ERA with the Giants is 4.48.  He’s been in the second half exactly what he’s been for so many years with the Giants, the same guy that fans burned to death the first 5 years of his NL career. Vogelsong has a track record, a very recent one, of pitching well. This was written in early August. 2 months later and it’s him versus Barry Zito for the 4^th starter job in the playoffs.

The more I look at Vogelsong’s 2^nd half the harder a decision this becomes. He’s been awful. Goodness he’s been bad. But difficult as it might be, the decision is pretty clear. Vogelsong should start.

Should be noted: I’m glad the fanbase has come around on Barry Zito, nobody should be chastised as much as he was for taking a contract everyone of us would have. But in the playoffs, you’re starting the pitcher with the best chance at pitching well. Starting Zito, especially against a good hitting team like the Reds, is a disaster waiting to happen.

A 7 game stretch shouldn’t alter 1.5 seasons of data. Vogelsong was excellent in his last start, which gives me hope he’s finding his groove again. He's been great for most of his tenure with the Giants. Every good pitcher has a rough patch. I trust Vogelsong to pitch well more than I do Zito, and given his track record, he deserves more trust from Giants management.

A vote for Barry Zito means advocating for Barry Zito to pitch against Joey Votto in the biggest game of the year. Yep. Let that marinate a little bit, before you cast your vote.