Assesing Angel Pagan

You were being clueless? I am clueless sometimes also! 

Angel Pagan has become something of a forgotten man, to some extent. I don’t mean that in a negative or positive way, but in an Angel Pagan way. He’s not praised all that much and isn’t criticized all that much. He’s just that guy who was acquired for Andres Torres , that was supposed to be Andres Torres and really is nothing like Andres Torres. So here’s the definitive Angel Pagan post, because it’s the first one to ever exist and if you show me any evidence to the contrary, I will most likely ignore it because I am always right.

When the Giants outfield caught fire in May, it was the emergence of Melky Cabrera and Gregor Blanco that caught everyone’s eye. There was excitement for Pagan, who hit .375/.422/.462 in May, but he wasn’t the guy that was igniting San Francisco into a naked frenzy. It’s not like you can blame the fanbase for focusing on a) a guy who set the record for hits in a month and b) a career minor leaguer who suddenly is a .400 OBP monster and perfect game hero. It’s also not like Pagan was completely ignored either, because those numbers listed above are nothing to scoff at. He’s just over on the side, doing Angel Pagan things like running the wrong way, while the other guys have the spotlight.

Nowadays, Gregor Blanco is mired in a horrendous slump, which is only semi-tolerable because of his glove. His recent struggles have initiated calls for corner outfield help. Of course, there is also Angel Pagan, who is not a corner outfielder, but is also in a miserable slump. Blanco however is the one that’s getting pressured to perform. Yet this is not a post about Gregor Blanco, because the title is "Assesing Angel Pagan", not "Assessing Not Angel Pagan.". This is about Angel Pagan. And he has been just as awful as Blanco recently. Since the beginning of June, Pagan is hitting .246/.295/.319. 

In baseball though, it's important to not get bogged down in small sample size noise and instead focus on the big picture. If you combine his last season with the current one, in nearly 900 PA he’s hitting .272/.326/.387 with a 102 OPS+. It’s reasonable to say this is who Pagan is, with a sample size that large. Which is, in so many words, average.

He’s on the other side of 30, and in all likelyhood had his peak season as a 29 year old, when he had 5.5 fWAR, which is excellent. Yet that was two seasons ago, and I’m a little skeptical of how inflated his WAR was that season. First though, his raw offensive numbers will always look worse than they actually are because he’s played in two extreme pitchers parks in San Francisco and in Citi Field. His OPS+ is far more telling as what to his actual production is because it’s a park adjusted stat, and he’s right around league average at an OPS+ of 102 the last 2 seasons.

His defense on the other hand, leads me to believe he gets clouds and baseballs confused. Admittedly, I haven't the slightest clue what I'm talking about with defensive metrics, but I'm going to act like it here:

Overall his career UZR has been pretty above average, but that might be skewed a bit because of his excellent UZR in 2010, and single season UZR can be deceiving. Of course, his career UZR also takes into account when he was younger, and usually, players age in a reverse Benjamin Button style. The last 2 seasons his UZR has been -9.45, which is very poor. At this point I’ve listed so many numbers I don’t really know what I’m saying, but I would guess his speed makes up for a lot of his defensive gaffes, like misjudged fly balls. Yet he’s probably not as fast as he once was, which is explains why his misplays are more emphasized at this point in his career. It’s not like he’s become Adam Dunn out there, he’s still a speedy outfielder, but he’s lost just enough to where he can’t make up that extra few inches he lost when he was does things like spending 5 minutes to decide which foot to run with first.

So who is Angel Pagan? Basically, this is a long winded way of saying he adds a little more value than Nate Schierholtz. Here are the numbers:

Schierholtz last 769 PA: .261/.310/.404 OPS+ 103

Pagan last 895 PA: .272/.326/.387 OPS+ 102

Pagan’s positon adds more value defensively because he’s in centerfield, but overall Schierholtz is a much better defender, who’s been consistently average to above average.

I’m not saying to start Schierholtz over Pagan, since it’s not worth getting worked up about because the difference between the two doesn’t add a whole of value. Yet if the Giants were to acquire another outfielder, I’d much rather have him replace Pagan, because Blanco is a much better fielder, and his bat adds similar value to Pagan’s. 

So there you have it. Angel Pagan is Nate Schierholtz with a little more speed and a little less awareness. You may now go back to ignoring Angel Pagan.