Why Buster Posey Is The 2012 MVP

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A few weeks back I broke down what it would take for Buster Posey to win the MVP. Back then, Andrew McCutchen was the clear frontrunner, and Buster Posey was the clear number two. The Brewers were still fiddling around in mediocrity, so Ryan Braun’s season was bound to be overlooked by the voters. More to the point, that post detailed what it would take for Posey to win in the minds of the voters. That meant taking off the sabermetrics hat and throwing on some RBI loving underwear. Back then, it wasn’t about what should happen, but what could happen. It was enough just to think there was an inkling of hope that Buster Posey could win the MVP. It was a simpler time. We were resigned to the fact that McCutchen deserved the award.

Now, we’re far past the point of being happy that Buster Posey could win the MVP. At this point, Buster Posey should win the MVP.

Here are the 3 players the race is going to come down to:

- Buster Posey .335/.409/.545, 171 OPS+, 7.1 fWAR

- Andrew McCutchen .338/.408/.567, 168 OPS+, 7.5 fWAR

- Ryan Braun. 315/.390/.600, 160 OPS+, 7.8 fWAR

Offensively the main thing to keep in mind is that this season, AT&T Park has been playing like the Polo Grounds on steroids. Posey’s season is better than the raw numbers suggest, and they look even better compared to Braun, who plays in a hitter’s ballpark. OPS+ isn’t the end all be all of comparing offensive numbers, but it’s safe to assume the three players are practically equals offensively once you account for the park factors and whatnot. 

Just to be clear though, Posey is first in OPS+. As of right now, he leads the majors in OPS+. By first, I mean Buster Posey’s name is ahead of Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera on the OPS+ leaderboard. Do you think it would be weird if I just sent this as my Christmas Card?

I don't think it would be weird.

The offensive numbers are probably a push all the way around, and the last 2 weeks will determine who comes out on top in terms of offensive production. Right now however, I give the slight edge to Posey.

Of course, the strange part is that Posey is having this other worldly offensive year, but his fWAR is still below McCutchcen and Braun. This is because, amazingly, his defensive metrics actually hurt his value. Posey’s Passed Pitch Runs (RPP), the Fangraphs stat used to measure blocking ability is .8. His Stolen Base Runs Saved (RSB), the stats measuring his throwing ability, is 1. Basically, Fangraphs has him rated as an average to slightly above average defensive catcher.

This is where Posey’s MVP case is really made. Obviously, I’m biased, because I am actually a Buster Posey fan. I know, it’s subtle. But the thing about defensive stats is that looking at them in a single season can be misleading. They are far from perfect, and should be looked at over 4 or 5 years to gain a clearer understanding. You need a fairly large sample of defensive stats to accurately evaluate a player’s defense using stats. The problem is that Posey doesn’t have a large track record, so there is a limited amount of defensive stats to use.

This is the point: There is now way anybody that watches Buster Posey play can tell me with a straight face he’s slightly above average defensively. In 2010, his RSB and RPP were 4.0 and 1.5 respectively, which implies a fantastic arm with a very good ball blocking ability. That’s more what you would expect. I’m not smart enough to calculate WAR, but if his 2010 defensive numbers were this season, his WAR would be even better. If anything, his defense improved from his rookie season in 2010. Obviously this is very objective, and these assertions are based solely on the eye test. But there is just no way Posey’s defensive numbers are as pedestrian as his 2012 numbers suggest.

Braun’s defense is nowhere close to Posey's. He’s rated as slightly above average this season, but over his career he’s been well below average. That, and the fact that left field’s defensive value is a largely inferior position to the catcher. It’s pretty clear Posey is more deserving the Braun.

McCutchen is a trickier case. His defensive metrics suggest he’s been a below average defender this season, and like Posey, most pundits would say McCutchen is a much better defender than that. He’s probably one of the best centerfielders in the game. Judging defense gets so fuzzy now, that defensively, at least on the surface, the two are probably a push. Don’t hold me to that, but the debate would be something like this:

Pirates Fan: I’ve seen McCutchen play everyday, his defense is superb

Giants Fan: I’ve seen Posey play everyday, his defense is better

Pirates Fan: You’re fat.

Giants Fan: :(

It’s a conversation that will just go in circles. So will call it a push and agree that nobody is fat.

Alright I lied, this is where Posey’s case gets made. But it builds off the last point. Him and McCutchen are pretty much even to this point, with maybe a slight offensive nod going to Posey. The part that really helps Posey is his position.

The amount of value both defensive and offensive for a catcher is far superior to that of a centerfielder. WAR accounts for replacement level players based on position, it’s clear that the stat is missing some defensive value for both players. However, if that’s the case, the upper hand goes to Posey. Catcher defense is extremely more valuable than a centerfielder. The missing defensive value for Posey is worth more than the missing defensive value for McCutchen because of where he plays. Obviously, the amount of perceived missing defensive value for each player is subjective. But I think given Posey’s position, his defensive value is better than McCutchen because any defensive value for a catcher is much more valuable than that of a center fielder. 

The race is razor thin if you couldn’t tell. These last 2 weeks could decide the award. But the fact that Posey's a catcher adds all kinds of value, which is important because we are trying to find the most valuable player.

In closing, Buster Posey.