Giants Score Less Runs Than Opponent, Lose

I hope the Giants trade for him

The new fangled way of looking at Matt Cain, is his performance post Perfect Game. First though let’s remember Matt Cain’s perfect game. Do you remember when Matt Cain threw a perfect game? I can’t hear you, so I’m assuming the answer is no, so I guess I have no choice but to show you video evidence of said performance.

Now that we’re all in such a celebratory mood, what do you say we talk about this game.

As I said, post Perfect Game Matt Cain is becoming a thing. Here are his stats since then:

51.2 IP, 4.01 ERA, 39 K, 9 BB, 9 HR, .780 OPS against

He’s been extra mediocre, with an increased home run rate. It’s an arbitrary point in time, that some believe is justified for reasons that I will guess at. One is that he’s currently relaxing on a beach in Hawaii, while paying Brett Tomko to pose as an imposter to pitch in his place. I’m assuming Brett Tomko is free. This scenario seems a little far fetched.

The other, bigger and more obvious concern, is that he threw 125 pitches that night and his arm never recovered. I’m not a doctor so I can’t accurately speak to Cain’s physical shape since the perfecto, but I do have stats, which doctors use, so I’m half-doctor.

Cain has averaged 107 pitches per start this season and last season he averaged 106, so 125 pitches is not an extraordinarily high number for him, although obviously it’s a jump from his normal pitch count level. Last season he never threw 125 pitches in a game, but he did have an 118 pitch start, and 7 pitches shouldn’t make that big of a difference in terms of arm fatigue. Here’s how Cain responded to the 118 pitch start:

101.1 IP, 2.64 ERA, 74 K, 30 BB, 2 HR, .568 OPS against

Those are Matt Cain numbers. No residual effect, nothing. Just good ole’ fashion Matt Cain.

In 2010, Cain threw more than 120 pitches 4 times, and that year he remained Matt Cain the whole year, picking up a stray Cy Young vote along the way. He's never been affected by high pitch counts, and this year should be no different. Again, something physically may have tweaked during the perfect game that I don’t know about, but I doubt it. This is just small sample size noise, that’s an easy narrative for people to fuss about. It’s only been 8 starts, and Cain will snap out of it.

*****

The offensive ability of this team is still up in the air, whether they are just average or something more than that. Here are a few observation from the game, none of which are positive, but as a consolation here's a gif of Buster Posey in a dress

Anyways, first off, it's time to stop pretending Ryan Theriot is a good hitter. Because he is not. So it would be good to stop pretending he is something he is not. Theriot is a typical old school 2 hitter, that makes a ton of contact, can bunt and sprays the ball all over the field. Bat control is what they call it. The problem is nowhere in that description does it say "the hitters hits well." I've already made the fuss here, but Theriot has become something of a fixture in the 2 hole. When everybody else gets mixed and matched, like Brandon Crawford hitting fifth, Ryan Theriot stays hitting second. His season wOBA is .284. Ryan Roberts wOBA is .283. Ryan Roberts was just cut by the Diamonbacks. But not Theriot. He's our trusted 2 hitter, getting the 2nd most plate appearances on the team!

In addition, he hits for a ton of contact, but he also strikes out a lot, which negates some of his perceived value. He strikes out 12.0% of the time, which isn't bad, but by comparison David Ortiz strikes out 12.9% of the time this year. He makes good contact, doesn't put the ball in play with that contact as much as one might think. 

Finally, there is Hunter Pence, who is 4 for 22 in a Giants uniform. There is nothing to be gathered from that, but I don't think some fans realize what a terrible slump he was in during July and before the trade. Since July 1st, Pence in 114 PA has hit a robust .210/.263/.267 with 1 HR. Brandon Belt in 85 PA since July 1st has hit .197/.271/.263. In tonights game, Hunter Pence was swinging like a wild Pablo Sandoval in the woods that hasn't been assimilated to civilized society yet. It was hard to watch. He'll come out of this, but his recent struggles shouldn't be all that unexpected.

Brandon Belt went 2-3 tonight. I'm telling you, he'll be hot by January. Just watch.