Dodgers Get Better, But Are They Better Off?

The centerpiece

With their most recent trade, the Dodgers continue to prove that money is no object in the quest to transition to an elite power under their new ownership. The Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto from the Red Sox in exchange for James Loney, Jerry Sands, Ivan De Jesus, Rubby De La Rosa, and Allen Webster.

This trade certainly upgrades the talent on the major league roster for the Dodgers right away. Adrian Gonzalez has been an elite first baseman in the past, but has been just pretty good this season. His walk rate has disappeared this season and his power has decreased as well, and he is on pace for only just 3.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). He has been better than that in the past though, and although his peripherals show a consistent decline since 2009, lets peg Gonzalez at a true talent level of 5 WAR. The man he was replacing, James Loney, was about the epitome of a replacement level player, so Gonzalez should add 5 wins to the Dodgers over a full season.

Josh Beckett’s value is a little harder to pin down. He has put up an awful ERA of 5.23, but his peripherals aren’t quite that bad, and last year he was pretty good. Lets assume his true talent level is above what he’s performing now, and about that of a 3 WAR pitcher. He will likely replace Joe Blanton who has actually been pretty similar to Beckett this season in that he has an ERA over 5, but peripherals that are a good bit better. Blanton however, doesn’t have the same track record as Beckett, so lets be conservative and call him a 1.5 WAR win player. If it were Blanton who Beckett replaces, this would give the Dodgers a 1.5 WAR upgrade. (By our rough measures.) Just tonight however, Chad Billingsley went down with an apparent elbow injury. The severity is not yet known, but if it is Billingsley that Beckett has to replace, then the Dodgers would probably lose about a win over a full season.

There isn’t a full left though, only 36 games for both the Dodgers and the Giants. The Giants have a three game lead now, and coolstandings.com projects the Giants to win the division by 4.5 games. Using the coolstandings projections and adjusting the Dodgers upgrades yesterday to 36 games versus a full season, the Dodgers would be projected lose the division by about 3 games – exactly where they are now. Of course, anything could happen. The Giants could lose every game next week or the Dodgers could win every game next week and throw this all off, but for now, the Giants are still the comfortable favorites in the NL West.

The Dodgers can’t have been making this trade looking only at one season though. They agreed to take on over $250 million in salary, with almost half of that belonging to Carl Crawford who is having Tommy John surgery and won’t even play at all this year. However, while this move definitely improves the quality of the Dodgers roster, it’s hard to see how it improves it by over $250 million. Both Beckett and Crawford are overpaid, and Gonzalez at best is a market value contract.

It’s confusing as to why if the Dodgers have all this money to spend, they chose to acquire players on bad contracts and part with two of their top prospects, De La Rosa and Webster. They could have easily waited until free agency this year and next year (since the trade wasn’t a win now move anyway) to spend that money on more talented guys who are worth their contracts. The new ownership has deep pockets been looking to make a big splash, but if acquiring these three guys is it, then the Dodgers have spent their newly acquired financial strength fairly poorly.