Buster Posey's Not So Unrealistic MVP Chances

yes.

The MVP award doesn’t legitimize a baseball player. Buster Posey could go his entire career without winning an MVP, and he could still be one of the best catchers in history. Carlton Fisk and Mike Piazza were never MVPs. A bunch of the MVP voters are RBI fanatics that bow at the alter of team records, while spewing out the inevitable “without X, these guys are still a playoff team, so no MVP for you!” Ryan Braun had a fantastic season last year, but the best player in the NL was clearly Matt Kemp. The only reason Braun won was because he played for a winning baseball team, a narrative that many voters chug down at pre-game MVP voter parties. Matt Kemp had the better season though.

But as a fan, MVPs are wonderful! Do you think even the most knowledgeable Ryan Braun fans care that Matt Kemp should’ve won the 2011 MVP? 10 years from now people will mention Ryan Braun’s year light years before they will get to Matt Kemp’s year. Lol Dodgers. I don’t think I need to glorify the MVP award more than already has been. It’s all kinds of prestigious and Buster Posey is right in the thick of the conversation.

                                        

How good of a chance does Buster Posey really have though? It’s still early to look at the race, but I don’t really have a life, so let’s explore!

Remember for the purposes of this post, I'm predicting what the voters will do, not what they should do. I’m trying to think like a baseball writer with an MVP vote. I was pretty much the worst actor in my middle school drama class, so this should be a chance to redeem myself. This is very important to me.

As a starting point here are the top 11 players in WAR in the NL, according to Fangraphs:

1) Andrew McCutchen 6.4

2) David Wright 6.1

3) Ryan Braun 5.9

4) Michael Bourn 5.9

5) Jason Heyward 5.9

6) Buster Posey 5.4

7) Chase Headley 4.9

8) Yadier Molina 4.9

9) Joey Votto 4.8

10) Melky Cabrera 4.5 L

11) Matt Holliday 4.4

Let’s chug right through the elimination process:

1) Have you been caught using PEDs?

:( 

2) Do you play for a winning/contending team?

Just looking at the last 10 seasons, 15 of the 20 MVPs have been on playoff teams and 19 of the 20 have been on winning teams. Again, it’s the wrong way to look at it, but it’s what the voters want. So David Wright, Ryan Braun and Chase Headley are out.

3) Is your value mostly defensively (are the raw offensive numbers underwhelming)?

Michael Bourn symbolizes this player. His season with the bat is  .293/.353/.427. Alright numbers, but not overly eye gauging, especially not MVP caliber. The reason he’s garnered so much value, is his defensive metrics have been off the charts this year. It’s a little icky trying to use single season defensive metrics, especially numbers that bloat a player’s value as much as Bourn’s. I also think voters will look at Bourne’s raw offensive numbers and immediately disregard him, not focusing on his defense at much as they should. For voters that probably don’t get to see him play everyday, some hardly ever, they won’t be able to appreciate his defense as much as a Braves beat writer would be. So I’ll almost gurantee Michael Bourn won’t win MVP, given his pedestrian offensive numbers.

Jason Heyward and Yadier Molina fall in this category also. They both are having great seasons with the bat (.272/.348/.488, .317/.368/.504 respectively) but not the caliber of an MVP. But when you compares those numbers to say, McCutchen and Posey, they’re very underwhelming. Their cases are helped by defense, which as explained above, is not going to help.

 Of course, Heyward has super human ability, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities to think he could go bonkers the rest of the way. However, he’d need a huge push to catch the leaders.

4) Is there a juicy narrative?

This is who remains:

1) Andrew McCutchen 6.4

2) Buster Posey 5.4

3) Joey Votto 4.8

4) Matt Holliday 4.4

Andrew McCutchen plays on the Pirates. Buster Posey is coming back from ankle obliteration. Joey Votto is not human.  Those are pretty good narratives. Matt Holliday gets tricky.

First, if the season ended today, the Cardinals would not be in the playoffs, which would almost erase any slim chance he had at winning the award. Holliday is having an excellent offensive year (.306/.385/.527). But he’s far behind the others' offensive production. What would help him, would be some type of narrative that would make his campaign more appealing. Something like:

Matt Holliday is having a fantastic season. But what makes his season even more amazing and more feel good, is that he was raised by dinosaurs. As a boy, Triceratops carcasses were a meal far too common in the Holliday household.

Something like that could put him over the top. But, he’s just not that appealing a player. Not to say that he’s not a fun player to watch or exciting to see. But when you’re down in an MVP race, an attractive narrative give you a chance to jump the leaders. Matt Holliday does not. I’m not discounting his chances entirely, because there’s still a month and a half of season remaining and his numbers are good enough to where there’s a miracle-like chance he can come close to their numbers. But we move on without him.

In all likely hood, these will be the players contending for the NL MVP, and here's how I would rank their cases:

1. Andrew McCutchen .354/.420/.592

2. Buster Posey .330/.405/.545

3. Joey Votto .342/.465/.604

You might say “why, doesn’t young Joey have the best stats of them all” to which I would say “yes he does. Fantasticle observation!” However, what will ultimately keep tugging at Votto’s case is the fact that he hasn’t played since July 15^th after suffering a knee injury. Right now he has 156 less PA’s than Posey and 202 less PA’s than McCutchen. That’s a monumental difference, nearly a full 1/3 of a season. Not only will his counting stats suffer, but his overall production isn't as glamorous since the others have produced in a much larger sample. Votto is reportedly close to coming back, but he won’t make the Reds’ current road trip and there’s no scheduled date for his return. It’s tough to say what voters would do in the event that Votto continues roughly the same production when he comes back despite less plate appearences. For now, I still think Posey has a leg up. Or knee up. lol.

So lets say Votto is the semi dark horse, with Posey and McCutchen the two main contenders. Here are some things that work in Posey’s favor and against McCutchen’s:

- Pirates might fade down the stretch

- Andrew McCutchen is hitting .261/.386/.391 in August

Things working against Buster Posey

- Andrew McCutchen has been a much better baseball player in 2012

Which is to say, Andrew McCutchen is a heavy favorite. It seems odd that a player having a much better season might not win the MVP. But again, some of these voters are not rationale human beings. If the Pirates don’t make the playoffs, a very real possibility, and the Giants do, another real possibility, Buster Posey's star could shine brighter than McCutchen's. Voters will look at September stats and team record extra closely, and if McCutchen slows down during that month and Posey heats up, this could get very interesting.

If I had a vote I'd vote for Andrew McCutchen, and if I were a betting man, I'd say Andrew McCutchen is going to run away with the award. But crazier things have happened then the scenario listed above. The fact that Posey is even this high in the MVP conversation should be good enough. But if he wants to go ahead an just win the award, that'd be just super.