How the West Will Be Won

Angel Pagan is a Hawaiian belly dancer

It’s pretty clearly going to be a 3 horse race in the 2012 NL West. This is because in two shocking turn of events, the Rockies are bad at pitching and the Padres are bad at hitting. Go figure. So the Giants, Diamondbacks and Dodgers are going to fight till the bitter end for the crown in the NL West. And unlike previous years, there’s an added emphasis on winning your division because of Bud Selig’s fetish for one game playoffs. Some dudes like feet, and Bud likes one game playoffs, but ya know whatever floats your boat there little guy! Again, the race will be a fight to the bitter end. Here’s how much of a threat each of the teams are to the Giants, on a 1-5 scale.

Diamondbacks:

Threat Level: 4.0

They’re still 6.5 games out of first, so it’s not like they’re making the Giants moisturize their shorts yet. But they’re hanging around, which is making me moisturize my shorts. It’s a talented roster.

Offensively they’ll always be fine, even with Justin Upton slugging .388. Aaron Hill, Jason Kubel, Paul Goldschmidt, and Miguel Montero are and should continue to be above average with the bat. It’s still entirely possible Upton remembers who he is before it’s too late, in a Tommy Lee Jones, Men in Black 2 kind of way. I like to think Justin is just confused about whether he is his brother B.J. or not, because they have the same parents and that can get confusing. Consequently, he’s slugging like he’s B.J., but he is all conflicted so he’s still getting on base at a decent clip. That is my theory, what is yours?

So they’re gonna hit the living bejeezies out of the ball and good for them. But what will determine their spot in October is the pitching. Daniel Hudson tore everything that ends with CL in his body, which is a huge blow. The rest of the starters have taken step backs from last season, which was expected, but not exactly to this extent. Even with their struggles, you're just waiting for some of these talented guys to turn their seasons around. Ian Kennedy finished 4^th in the Cy Young last year, and Trevor Cahill is a good pitcher switching leagues which is supposed to spike your numbers. These are talented players that unlike most of the Dodger surprises, are still in their prime. It’s possible this is just an outlier year for them. Yet if those guys can turn it around, the D’backs have All Star Wade Miley, and a prospect slut in Trevor Bauer, whom scouts salivate over while trying to figure out who Fabio is. 4 talented pitchers that have incredible upside, and an offense that’s raking even with their best player having an identity crisis. Welp.

Dodgers

Threat Level: 2.5 + Being The Dodgers Component = 45

Why does Bobby Abreu have a .370 OBP? Why does Jerry Hairston have a .370 OBP? Why does A.J. Ellis have a .393 OBP? Why is Matt Kemp a baseball player? These are the questions I ask as I assess the Dodgers. Abreu was dumped onto a scrap yard by the Angels because of some Trout fish dude, Hairston is a career utility/bench player and Ellis was a career backup catcher. Like, he had the same job as Steve Holm. I keep saying to my self regression is going to come by and fart in their faces, but it never has because it is polite I guess. The fact that all three guys are giving them productive seasons is crazy. Yet even with those surprises, the Dodgers are 25^th in baseball in wOBA. Besides Kemp and Ethier, the team has zero power. I mean, Hairston is their third best slugger and he is short and annoying. 

           

Even so, Matt Kemp is coming back, which probably does some things. Like make them better. Andre Ethier should be back soon and the lineup should look a little more Major Leaguey. All of this is assuming that the aforementioned surprise players continue their rate of production. Look, crazier things have happened than a career minor league catcher or utility bench player catching fire once they get everyday playing time. Bobby Abreu has always been able to get on base, even with his declining everything else. Yet I just can’t imagine these guys continuing to be as productive, but it remains to be seen how much less productive their going to be and how big a chunk of their struggles Matt Kemp will be able to cover up.

It’s the same story with their pitching. Clayton Kershaw is everything and then some, but the 4 other pitchers were supposed to be washed up or just not very good. Chris Capuano has a better ERA than Kershaw. So there’s that. And that’s basically what’s holding the Dodgers up on two feet. Surprises by players that aren’t supposed to be even toying with success. So when you look at it like that, the Giants look a lot better. I’d be surprised if they were still in the conversation in September. But it’s the Dodgers, and sometimes Steve Finley becomes a sith lord, so I’m scared.

*****

Not accounting for the Dodger being a giant black hole of despair, it’s weird to say the Diamondbacks are more threatening because they’re still 6.5 games out. But if everything goes right for them, which is not exactly unlikely, they’re incredibly dangerous. The Giants have better pitching than the D’backs, but the D’backs have better hitting. The Giants have a lead on them, but with some slumps here by the Giants and a hot streak there by Arizona and all of the sudden, you can feel an earthquake coming or just Jason Kubel walking towards you. But you get the point.

After all this the Dodgers will destroy us with their star destroyers, so you have to account for that.